Here it is -- the moment of reckoning for last year's predictions. Looking back, 2009 feels like the year the world froze, waiting for stimuli to kick in and new policies to emerge from the fog. Everyone was in a holding pattern, trying to keep the boat from leaking too much. As a result, the most frequent verdict on my 2009 predictions is 'sort of true, but not yet'.
Let's call 2009 the year of lost momentum. Both positive and negative trends slowed to a trickle...
Next week I'll try to divine 2010 tech market trends, but in the meantime, here is a summary of my 2009 calls and how they fared:
- SaaS vendors who are not already at the inflection point of positive cash-flow will go bust. FALSE. We haven't seen any major players or even mid-sized VC-backed vendors disappear as yet, but don't kid yourself -- it's coming...
- Outsourcing will come back into favour. And it will be cheaper & better than ever, thanks to SaaS-style delivery of business apps built on VoiP communications platforms like Intelepeer. TRUE, but hard to prove. The line between adopting a SaaS app and outsourcing a business process is blurring. This trend continues.
- Ad-supported digital media sites will see a massive shake-out – few generic newsletters or blogs will survive. NOT YET. Undoubtedly hundreds of thousands of small web sites have died (who noticed?), but even established ones like Salon.com continue to limp along, bleeding cash. More high-profile disappearances are on the way. But the most unexpected development in late 2009 was the decision by big media to try to reverse the tide of free content and re-establish payment models. The shake-out continues.
- Social networks will see their values collapse, and many will disappear. SORTA TRUE? The monetisation model continues to elude, and most valuations that are bandied about are ephemeral. Twitter did not get bought, MySpace is struggling, and smaller social networks (and regional plays like Tuenti) are picking off niche audiences. Where to from here?
- Microsoft will continue to lose share in the browser market [and] will make defensive acquisitions, like Xobni. TRUE/FALSE. IE's share of browser useage is down perhaps another 10% between 2008 and 2009 (see embedded chart, courtesy TheCounter.com).
But so far the Evil One has been slow to buy its way back into innovation, making only 2 acquisitions in marginal areas (healthcare software, games) vs 16 deals in 2008 (!). If I were an investor I'd be screaming for a dividend!
- CPA and creative rich media ads (games, viral video) will outperform other types of online advertising. Expect consolidation among online ad networks. TRUE. The overall online ad market was flat to stagnant in 2009. Video ads were one of the few bright spots (according to e-marketer, see table below). Quite a few networks were acquired, though most not for big values. The exception was Google's acquisition of AdMob. Hi-Media bought AdLink. Orange acquired Unanimis. And Fox acquired UTarget, ClickDiario and Directa Network. Etcetera.
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- Consumer appetite for innovation will slow, compounding Apple’s challenge in dealing with a sick Steve Jobs. [...] don’t be a shareholder while they figure it out. FALSE. Apple just keeps on cracking, and the market keeps on lovin' it. If you had bought shares at the time of my prediction, you would have doubled your money by now. And that's before the release of the eagerly awaited iTablet iPanel iSlate or whatever.
- A lot of local newspapers and offline magazines will disappear in 2009, which is kind of sad.TRUE. The Star Tribune, Heartland Newspapers, Philadelphia dailies, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times and many other city and community papers closed. Here's a summary. The one bright spot on the media horizon is the continued experimentation with new ways to fund investigative journalism (like the American News Project/HuffPost JV and News21).
- Project management tools like Daptiv, and construction industry SaaS vendors like BiW and will thrive as governments pump gazillions into ‘stimulating’ infrastructure projects. NOT YET! As should have been predictable, stimulus money is crawling through the economy like molasses...
- The shake-out among European VCs will continue at its glacial pace. TRUE. No one has formally shut up shop (do they ever?), but a growing number of funds are slowing or stopping to invest while they wait wait for a window in which to raise a new fund...
And the one item from my wishlist...
- Somebody fix videoconferencing, puh-lease! There must be a better way between Skype video and a $150k TelePresence implementation from Cisco. This would be a great time to go to market with a Polycom killer! STILL WAITING...
Stay tuned for a gaze into the 2010 crystal ball.
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