Max's Politburo

Oh Palin, don't you see...?

SNL are really on to something with their Palin impression.  I love it! (thanks Jonathan):

Republicans vote for their hides, against America

If you want to know which Republicans (and which Democrats) were responsible for scuppering the bailout plan, check out Nate Silver's blog here. Basically anyone who was facing a close by-election was likely to vote against the plan.  They'll say they listened to the people of their districts, who emailed their overwhelming opposition to the bailout of the "Wall Street fatcats."  Never mind that it is the legislators' duty to explain to their constituents what the plan really achieves.  And -- if necessary -- it is their duty to vote rationally, in support of the country and their districts, even if that contradicts the wishes of voters who haven't been made aware of the ramifications.  That is why the Founding Fathers created Congress -- so that ordinary folk are represented by educated, experienced lawmakers who can interpret their wishes and act on them.  Now we know they are willing to ignore that mandate to save their own hides, even at extraordinary expense.  It's a sad day.

Disenfranchisement of US voters, Part 2

When I wrote recently about the wholesale disenfranchisement of 6 million US voters, I didn't think this would become a series of posts.  But as it turns out Americans with a criminal record aren't the only ones who struggle to exercise their voting rights.

Girlwithoutawatch wants to vote in this year's presidential election.  Along with about 6 million expat Americans, she qualifies for an absentee ballot.  More than 3 months ago the State of Maryland promised to send her one, but it has not arrived.  As it turns out, this is more than a common occurrence.

In 2004, only 1 million out of 6 million eligible overseas voters managed to send in postal ballots.  Of these less than 1/3 actually counted.  That means only 330,000 votes were cast by 6 million eligible voters!  What the hell??

It's a fine line between incompetence and conspiracy, never more so than with this administration.  But it is a slightly bizarre fact that -- due to a 1986 law -- responsibility for delivering ballots to overseas voters (military and civilian) lies with the US State Department.  And yet, in recent years only 40% of military personnel received any voting information at all, even though federal law requires that they all do.  A federal study showed that in the congressional elections of 2006, some 24% of civilians abroad tried and failed to vote.  While 85% of US-based voters who requested an absentee ballot were able to cast it, only 26% of military personnel who requested one actually cast it.

It seems perverse that America's foot soldiers, whose fate is more dependent on the results of elections than anyone else, should have so little say in their outcome.

Civilian overseas voters must be more than persistent to exercise the most cherished privilege in America.  Even for federal elections, every state has different ballots, deadlines, rules and allowed transmission methods.  A handful of states now allow ballots to be sent in via email, but most require you to use the US Postal Service.  In fact, if you live in Palin country, eg Alaska, your absentee ballot will only be counted if it is witnessed and notarised (!).

Now, the State Department's unwillingness inability to fix the problem (despite $1 million spent on a useless website), has led to a commendable private sector effort: the Overseas Vote Foundation, started by expats in Munich.  The site allows registered voters to receive a Federal Absentee Ballot if their state failed to send them one.  It also partners with FedEx to allow voters to post their ballots at sharply discounted rates.

What is the political impact of this shameful disenfranchisement of Americans overseas?  General voter turnout in 2004 was 57%.  There are about 6 million US citizens of voting age abroad, including about 450,000 military personnel.  Let's assume expat Americans turn out in the same proportions as the general population (though surveys have shown their voting interest to be higher on average).  That's 57% x 6m = 3.4m votes.  Which way would they lean?  Based on a wholly unscientific survey of Americans I know, I would say 75:25 for Obama among civilians, and perhaps 65:35 for McCain among military personnel.  That means there are some 2.5m Obama votes likely to go missing this year, and 1 million McCain votes. 

With an extra margin of 1.5 million votes Obama would take all the swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and probably a few Republican states as well.

I'm not accusing anyone here, but the current administration sure has a lot of incentives to keep expats from voting...

Sources: IHT, 14 Sept 2008, NPR: Groups Aim To Ease Overseas Voting For Americans, Chattanooga Times 25 July 2008.

"McCain's worst idea yet..."

McCain's campaign scales new absurdist heights, as described in this article.  Read it to believe it.

Let the politicians speak for themselves

One of the new media formats I really like is Fake Blogs.  It's the new media outlet for first-person parody.  First there was Fake Steve Jobs, then MockMarkCuban (the billionaire everyone loves to hate), and now we have the politicians who most deserve to be skewered by their own words: The PalinDrome for Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney's Blog.  Enjoy.

Bring my chevy to the Levi...

If you want to see discomfort personified, go to minute 1.25 of this video: Bristol Palin's future husband meets John McCain.  Levi is the one in the grey turtleneck.

Why Obama is a better person

On the news that Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin's 17-year old daugher is pregnant:

"Let me be a clear as possible: I have said before and I will repeat again, I think people's families are off limits, and people's children are especially off limits. This shouldn't be part of our politics. It has no relevance to Gov. Palin's performance as governor, or her potential performance as a vice president."

"And so I would strongly urge people to back off these kinds of stories. You know my mother had me when she was 18, and how a family deals with issues and, you know, teenage children, that shouldn't be the topic of our politics and I hope that anybody who is supporting me understands that's off limits."

Can Obama win it with mobile marketing?

This is a cross-post with my tech blog about Obama's use (over-use?) of digital and mobile marketing in his campaign.  Follow the link.